Coordinator: Robert W. Resek
The Illinois Econometric Model (IEM) is a parametric model of the major business sectors of the Illinois economy produced by the Bureau of Economics and Business Research (BEBR). The IEM makes projections for three fundamental areas of the state economy: employment, gross state product, and personal income. Forecasts for these areas are produced for the major sectors of the Illinois economy: durable and non-durable manufacturing industries; the service sector; and state government. IEM forecasts are generated by modeling the relationship of the Illinois economy to the national economy based on forecasts of the national economy. The IEM forecasts how the Illinois economy is expected to behave given the expected behavior of the national economy.
BEBR is in the process of moving the IEM to a software platform that will allow two major improvements to the forecasts: greater flexibility in both production and distribution. We will be able to generate more up-to-date forecasts. In addition, BEBR will be able to create forecasts for different scenarios. Several commercial, forecasters are produce results for both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The new software platform will allow the IEM to also forecast how the economy will act given different scenarios and will provide a means to evaluate the likelihood of each.
The second major improvement to the IEM will be in the distribution of the forecasts. Currently, IEM projections are published in the Results newsletter distributed twice a year. The projections included are limited by space and budgetary restrictions. Online access to the full set of IEM projections will be a timely and inexpensive way to distribute the data to all those who rely upon the data. In addition, online access will be extended to the data which generates the IEM forecast, an invaluable resource to anyone interested in the Illinois economy.
For more information, please contact the Office of Research at the following address:
Bureau of Economics and Business Research
College of Commerce and Business Administration
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
430 Commerce West Building
1206 S. Sixth Street
Champaign, Illinois 61820